[Interview with SFRY Prime Minister Ante Markovic by Alain Debove; place and date not given. Paris LE MONDE in French 23 May 91 p 2]

[Text] [Debove] Yugoslavia's present crisis does not seem to surprise you.

[Markovic] When I took office two years ago, when I launched social reforms and spoke of the need to change the whole system, I expected it to take a period of five years. At that time, I was already saying that the path we were taking would be very difficult and that it would cost us all blood, sweat, and tears to make this transition from one system to another. At that time I told the legislature that at a given point in the process, all the forces--conservative, retrograde, dogmatic, separatist, and hegemonist--would, through political and social tensions, unite against the economic reform program, against the architects of those reforms, to try and halt them and oust them.

I predicted all that, and we have now reached a critical point in the reforms. This is no surprise, the question was when it would happen. The government is therefore striving to implement the program that would enable the system to function and our action to be continued. The adoption of this program and the revival of the reforms is the answer to your question.

[Debove] Has this reform program not been relegated to second place by the political unrest and the interethnic conflicts--notably between Serbs and Croatians?

[Markovic] That is true, and it is politics that has halted the economic reforms. But the reforms are not just to do with the economy. They are concerned with the organization of the state and of society in general. The economic reforms have unfortunately revealed real underdevelopment in our country. The political reforms have highlighted a lack of democratic sense and experience. Current relations among the different nationalities are like a bottle whose cork has popped: old thinking is reappearing--emotions, irrational feelings, ethnic problems, religion, and so forth. The economic disparities are huge and the social tensions that are beginning to emerge must not be underestimated.

The Federal Government is fighting for reforms, for the democratization of society, and thus for a Yugoslavia without borders. But there are republics that, pushed by nationalism, are fighting for borders inside the country. The first idea must prevail. If I did not believe that, I would doubt progress.

[Debove] You said: We are at a critical point in the reform. But is the situation as critical as that?

[Markovic] Yes, it is critical and many factors bear witness to that. The economic situation is difficult and this halt in the implementation of reforms over the past seven months is bound to have harmful effects. The delays in economic change, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, are causing social tensions and unemployment.

Opposing the constitutional amendments is an attempt to maintain a complex conservative Constitution. This produces insecurity for the citizen, for the nationalities, for the peoples, and for the republics--a general insecurity, a lack of confidence and tolerance. To overcome the situation, the reforms must be relaunched and the government is working in that direction.

In several spheres, our program has produced excellent results. At first, we had two possible courses--drawing up a substantial, gradual program, or destroying a system and building another on the ruins. I hope that the citizens of our country will not forget what this program brought them. That is why we believe that we have chances of succeeding, with the citizens' support, and by resuming the path of reform.

[Debove] You are talking of the support of citizens but not of the support of the republics....

[Markovic] Precisely, with the citizens' support, I must say, however, that we are also supported by several republics.

[Debove] Two camps are facing each other--the advocates of a strong and centralized federation (Serbia and Montenegro) and the advocates of a flexible confederation of sovereign states (Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, and Bosnia-Hercegovina). What is your position? Are there other solutions?

[Markovic] As far as the Federal Government is concerned, we are constantly trying to find a solution that is not definitive. A solution that is neither federal nor confederal. Above all, we are trying to define a new and minimal basis for relations between the republics, in the framework of a pluralist and democratic regime and within a common state.

The conflict between federation and confederation is irrational, as are many other things in our country. I do not think it will last long because economic and social problems will not permit it. All the republics absolutely must seek a rapid solution. None of them will be able to achieve the transition to a market economy alone. It is a question of cost: Will the transition all together be more costly or less costly than transition on an individual basis? Some republics may think that the cost will be less if they go it alone, outside Yugoslavia. But if you take account of the time needed--first to go on quarrelling, then to separate, then to settle our relations with the other republics and foreign countries, to define the internal borders--then the price is much higher! The price will be higher for each of us.

[Debove] After the nonelection of Croatian Stipe Mesic (because of Serbia's veto) as head of state, the collegial presidency is paralyzed. Are some republics not trying to destabilize the presidency, the legislature, and the Federal Government?

[Markovic] Yes, of course. Instability suits some political forces that are boosting their power by manufacturing enemies. Peace would not suit them. Having said that, the collegial presidency is experiencing a crisis, the other bodies are functioning--the legislature and the government that is entirely homogeneous. We are implementing the decision made recently by the presidency and legislature to find peaceful and democratic solutions to the recent conflicts between Serbs and Croatians in Croatia and in Kosovo. It is not true that everything has stopped, although we have not overcome the crisis.

Of course, the government is answerable to the legislature, but the presidency has its say if the deputies do not reach a consensus on the bill. It is desirable therefore that it should start functioning again.

[Debove] The unstable situation does not encourage foreigners to give loans or invest. Are you able to continue your program without the help of international financial bodies?

[Markovic] The reforms implemented so far have been achieved almost completely without foreign aid. Last fall, the currency reserves were $10 billion and the international bodies gave us between $300 million and $400 million. For the past seven months, the program has been at a standstill. The cost of overcoming the crisis will therefore automatically be higher than expected. Production has dropped by 20 percent, currency reserves have fallen. Consequently, we need foreign aid. As for U.S. aid, President Bush told me on the telephone on Monday evening that he supported the economic reforms and the democratization of society. He also expressed the importance he attaches to Yugoslav territorial integrity.

[Debove] How long can you withstand this crisis, and do you think that nationalism will die down, that the nationalist leaders will lose their influence?

[Markovic] Economic and social problems are on the increase. All the political forces will therefore very soon be obliged to tackle them. Each republic alone or all together. This is the only solution and without it the consequences will be very serious. I think that this stage in the crisis will have to be overcome before the end of the year.

[Debove] Will you not be held responsible for these problems? The Serbs, Croatians, and Slovenians will say: this is all Mr. Markovic's fault...so let us solve our own problems!

[Markovic] That might happen, But autonomy and sovereignty means that the republics would take responsibility for economic and social problems.... They cannot avoid that. With one problem after another, the situation will continue to deteriorate. Moreover, the discontent is directed increasingly at the republic governments. During the last strike in Serbia, for instance--700,000 workers--my government was not criticized. The anger was directed against the Serbian authorities.